NEW DELHI, June 4 (Reuters) — Expanding conflict zones worldwide are placing increasing strain on airlines, causing operational challenges and driving up costs. Airline executives warn that missiles, drones, airspace restrictions, and even accidental shootdowns of passenger flights have become pressing concerns.
Rising Costs and Shrinking Routes
Airlines are facing spiraling costs and losing market share due to last-minute cancellations and expensive detours. In an industry that values predictability, the unpredictability of today’s security environment is particularly damaging.
“Flight planning in this kind of environment is extremely difficult,” said Guy Murray, head of aviation security at TUI Airline. “The absence of predictability drives up costs across the board.”
Airspace closures are proliferating across the globe — from Russia and Ukraine to the Middle East, India-Pakistan, and parts of Africa — leaving airlines with fewer route choices and longer flight paths.
“More than half the countries overflown on a typical Europe-Asia flight today require detailed risk assessments, compared to five years ago,” explained Mark Zee, founder of OPSGROUP, a platform that shares flight risk data.
Missiles, Drones, and Heightened Risks
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict since October 2023 has forced airlines to operate alongside sudden drone and missile attacks in major flight corridors — some reportedly so close that pilots and passengers have seen them in the skies.
Russian airports, including Moscow’s hubs, have also faced regular shutdowns due to drone activity. Meanwhile, GPS spoofing and jamming incidents are on the rise in geopolitical hotspots.
In May, hostilities between India and Pakistan saw reciprocal airspace closures, further disrupting regional and international flights.
“Airspace should not be used as a retaliatory tool, but it is,” said Nick Careen, IATA’s Senior Vice President for Operations, Safety and Security, at the airline group’s annual meeting in New Delhi.
Long Detours Around Russia
Airlines avoiding Russian airspace face significant route lengthening compared to competitors that continue to overfly it. For instance, British Airways flights between London and Beijing took over two extra hours when bypassing Russia. British Airways eventually suspended the route in October.
Worst-Case Scenario: Passenger Flights Under Threat
Beyond the financial pressures, the greatest fear is a passenger plane being accidentally or deliberately shot down.
- December 2023: An Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed in Kazakhstan, killing 38 people, allegedly after being shot down by Russian air defenses.
- October 2023: A cargo plane was shot down in Sudan, killing five people.
- Since 2001: Six commercial planes have been shot down, with three near-misses, according to Osprey Flight Solutions.
Despite generally declining accident rates in aviation, these events highlight the growing security threat that traditional accident statistics do not fully capture. In February, IATA stressed the urgent need for global coordination to address risks from conflict zones.
Information Sharing and Risk Assessments
Each airline must make its own operational decisions based on a patchwork of government advisories, security assessments, and collaborative data sharing. These divergent policies lead to different approaches to risk — and varied impacts on airlines’ bottom lines.
For example, the closure of Russian airspace to most Western carriers in 2022 pushed them onto longer, more expensive routes, while airlines from China, India, and the Middle East continue to use shorter, fuel-efficient northern routes.
Recent Flightradar24 data shows how these changing risk calculations are forcing airlines to continually adjust. In the past year alone, Singapore Airlines flight SQ326 (Singapore–Amsterdam) has used three different routes to Europe:
- In April 2024, reciprocal attacks between Iran and Israel forced flights to cross Afghanistan instead of Iran.
- In May 2024, as India-Pakistan tensions escalated, routes shifted again to avoid Pakistani airspace.
- Today, the flight reaches Europe via the Persian Gulf and Iraq.
Singapore Airlines declined to comment.
Crew Concerns and Pressures
Flight crews also worry about the shifting patchwork of risk. Paul Reuter, Vice President of the European Cockpit Association, warns:
“IATA says airlines should decide if it’s safe to fly over conflict zones, but history shows commercial pressures can cloud those decisions.”
However, IATA’s Nick Careen underscored that:
“Most airlines do not want crew members flying if they’re not comfortable. Flight crew have the right to refuse flights if they feel unsafe — whether due to weather or conflict.”
